Tuesday, 12 September 2017
Why high(er) voltage hybrid drive systems will dominate by 2020
The London Region were treated to a fascinating lecture from Andrew Marsh, engineering director of Auto Industry Consulting.
Andrew explained in detail 'what happened at Volkswagen Group' a chronology of events that led to the VWG emissions scandal.
The Volkswagen emissions scandal erupted on 18 September 2015, when the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a notice of violation of the Clean Air Act to German automaker Volkswagen Group after it was found that Volkswagen had intentionally programmed turbocharged direct injection (TDI) diesel engines to activate certain emissions controls only during laboratory emissions testing. The programming caused the vehicles' NOx output to meet US standards during regulatory testing but emit up to 40 times more NOx in real-world driving. Volkswagen deployed this programming in about eleven million cars worldwide, and 500,000 in the United States, during model years 2009 through 2015.
VWG deny accusations - USA EPA and California Air Research Board (CARB) investigate
14/09/15 – VWG announce more hybrids in future11/11/15 – Dr Winterkorn 'resigns' from Audi AG board
18/09/15 – EPA notice of emission law violation21/11/15 – $1000 compensation for USA customers, nothing for EU customers
22/09/15 – VWG admit 2l diesel EA 189 issue03/12/15 – Dr.Ulrich Hackenberg, chief architect of MQB platform and key strategist, 'resigns' from Audi AG board
23/09/15 – VWG CEO Dr Winterkorn resigns09/12/15 – CO2irregularities confirmed: 36,000 vehicles
29/09/15 – EA 189 Euro V action plan17/12/15 – KBA verify NOx solution for EA189
12/10/15 – VWG software used since 200822/12/15 – VWG issue press briefing
–Admission that EA189 used by-pass software related to ESC status
–Admission that EA189 used a special EGR activation routine during emission testing
–Outlines retro-fitment routine
28/10/15– EU approve new emission test from 01/09/1712/01/16 – CARB rejects VWG North America recall plan......
03/11/15 – VWG accused of 3l V6 diesel issue by EPA 20/01/16 – VWG admit (unofficially) defeat software was known about since 2006....
03/11/15 – VWG admit CO2 'irregularities'06/16 – VWG agree $14.7 bn package - 311,209 vehicles bought back so far...
Andrew gave an overview on the emissions laboratory tests
The 'New European Driving Cycle' (NEDC) measures the emissions of passenger cars for both CO2 and pollutants in a laboratory setting. All conditions for vehicle set-up, testing and the handling of test results for cars are defined by EU law. This is important as it establishes a standard regulation that all car manufactures and other players must respect. Additionally, it allows for a standardised and repeatable procedure which enables customers to compare emissions between different car models.
What are the limitations of the current laboratory test?
The NEDC was designed in the 1980s and is now outdated. Today's cars come equipped with an increasing amount of new technologies that have a strong effect on fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, a wide range of safety and customer comfort systems. Additionally, driving styles and conditions have changed.
Work is under way to replace the current lab test with a more modern and representative test cycle and test procedure.
Work is well under way on a 'Real Driving Emission' test
The Real Driving Emissions (RDE) tests will apply to new models that are to be sold from 2017 within the European Union. The RDE agreement makes type approval requirements for vehicles significantly more stringent, with the greatest impact expected for diesel NOx emissions. Manufacturers will continue to have to meet the limits in laboratory tests but will also have to improve their real-world emissions control to meet the RDE requirements. The new European legislation requires manufacturers to ensure real-world emissions are maintained below 2.1 times the lab-testing limit from 2017 and are at or below the limit by 2020 (with a 0.5 margin for measurement uncertainty).
In addition, the introduction of the new world-wide harmonized light duty vehicles test cycle and procedure (WLTC and WLTP). This is expected to be introduced in 2017 and will address short-comings of the existing laboratory NEDC type approval emissions test. This includes the introduction of some emissions testing at a more representative 14°C, closer to the UK average ambient temperature of 9°C.
Andrew went on to explain what this all means.
The biggest key is this: None of the energy used to create the electric drive system, it's energy storage system nor the electricity supplied – if externally charged – count towards CO2 emissions. That is the position in the USA and in Europe right now, and for the foreseeable future. The UK is highly likely to adopt both current and impending EU emission legislation once it leaves the European Union.
The future is being created with hybrid cars rapidly gaining market share now and sale of pure electric cars likely to take off in the coming years as certain technical and cost challenges are resolved – and in light of zero CO2 in terms of official tail pipe emissions.
Meanwhile a backlash from the EU political elite against passenger car diesel engines combined with the VWG affair finishing almost any prospect of diesel powered passenger car sales in the USA means it is politics rather than engineering that will reduce small diesel engine applications.
Toyota and Tesla have hugely benefitted from correct market positioning but now Toyota is betting strongly on fuel cell hybrids and Tesla on mainstream pure electric cars - both graveyards for many companies in the past. A vicious shakeout of car and battery manufacturers has commenced with the winners expecting riches beyond the dreams of avarice.
Electric and hybrid vehicles are increasingly common, with a fuel economy approximately 33% greater than a gasoline-powered engine. While the battery-powered cars can be recharged at home or at public charging stations, the range of the electric-only vehicles is considerably less than a gasoline-powered car with a storage capacity of 12 or more gallons. Improvements in battery technology have been slower than initially projected, and the electric-powered vehicles remain more expensive than an internal combustion engine powered alternative. Nevertheless, electric cars will continue to collect a greater market share as manufacturing costs decrease and their environmental advantages become more obvious – although they are likely to remain a niche sector.
Hybrid models relying on an internal combustion engine to recharge batteries or power the electric motor can be driven farther than vehicles powered only by an internal combustion engine, and retain a fuel economy advantage as well. Smaller scale hybrid drive systems have the capability to almost eliminate the emission issues caused by transient fuelling during acceleration, and this is where 'hybrid' will have the biggest impact on internal combustion powered car sales – as an additional system, applied across almost all types of vehicle.
It is unlikely that any single alternate fuel will displace the internal combustion engine as the automobile's primary drive system before 2025. Electric automobiles and hybrid vehicles will continue to collect significant market share as the distance travelled per electric charge increases. The world price for oil will also greatly affect the eventual wholesale conversion to an alternative fuel. If fuel prices continue to rise, the move to alternative fuels will also be spurred.
Steve Helps